Capitol Report: House tax plan won’t yield nearly enough growth to pay for itself, analysis finds

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady and House Speaker Paul Ryan unveil legislation to overhaul the tax code on Capitol Hill on Nov. 2.

The tax bill passed by the House of Representatives will boost economic growth in the U.S., but not by enough to pay for itself, a new study found.

In an analysis released Monday, the Tax Policy Center said the House-passed bill would grow output by 0.6% of gross domestic product in 2018, and 0.3% of GDP in 2027. In dollar terms, it would result in $169 billion flowing into government coffers between 2018 and 2027, said the study by the TPC.

That amount wouldn’t be close to covering the revenue loss from the plan, however, which the TPC puts at $1.4 trillion.

Trump administration officials have said a tax plan would pay for itself through growth. Back in the spring, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin asserted that would happen. Discussing the Senate plan in an interview on Sunday, Trump’s budget director Mick Mulvaney said it would generate money.

The study examined the House’s bill only. The Senate Finance Committee has passed its own version of the legislation. The two will be reconciled into a single measure. Senate rules allow for a tax cut of $1.5 trillion for Republicans to pass it without Democrats’ help.

See: This brutal chart shows what happens when the Senate tax cuts sunset.

The TPC is a joint venture of the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution, and is run by a former Obama administration official.

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